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A shares, Hong Kong stocks with the same frequency, the real estate sector has rebounded strongly in recent days.
Today, the A-share real estate sector staged a trading trend, nearly 20 shares rose more than 10%, the leading Vanke A strong limit, there are more than 1 billion yuan of funds waiting to buy on the limit board. The Hong Kong stock market rose more violently. China Olympic Park, Kaisa Industry Group and Sunac China rose more than 20%, and a number of real estate stocks have risen nearly 50% in the past five days.
Analysts pointed out that the expectation of more loose policy on the property market and the possible change of style contributed to the rebound of real estate stocks.
The tide has been rising and ebbing for a long time
April 29, A, H-share real estate sector rose strongly.
In A shares, Vanke A rose strongly by the daily limit. By midday, volume turnover exceeded 3.5 billion yuan, and there were more than 1.5 million orders on the limit board. It is estimated that the corresponding purchase amount is more than 1 billion yuan.
In addition to Vanke, A shares also have Huaxia Happiness, Jindi Group, Metro Holdings and other nearly 20 stocks rose more than 10%, staged a rising tide.
In the ETF market, the four real estate ETF funds managed by Southern Fund, Huaxia Fund, Yinhua Fund and Warburg Fund are all up about 7 per cent.
In the Hong Kong stock market, where there is no limit on the extent of rise and fall, the rise of inner housing stocks is even more "violent". As of press time, China Olympic Garden, Kaisa Group, Sunac China, etc., are up more than 20%, while Vanke is up 16%.
It is worth noting that before today's outbreak, A, H real estate plate has been quietly started.
The Shenwan real estate index in the A-share market has completed three consecutive gains, rising 4% on April 26 as a whole. The H-share market, the real estate sector was launched on April 22, and nearly 10 stocks, including Xuhui Holdings Group, Sunchuang China, Agile Group and Shimao Group, have risen nearly 50% in the past five trading days.
New expectation of policy adjustment
Recently, high-energy cities have loosened the property market restrictions, and the real estate industry is ushering in a new round of policy window.
Yesterday, Chengdu completely lifted the purchase restrictions, that is, caused a high degree of public concern. After the withdrawal of the purchase restriction policy in Chengdu, apart from Hainan Province, the core cities that still maintain the purchase restriction policy are only first-tier cities, Hangzhou (new houses), Tianjin and Xi'an core area.
The Sichuan Company of the China finger Research Institute said that the complete abolition of the purchase restrictions will help Chengdu to actively release the effective home purchase demand that is "qualified, capable and willing". On the one hand, it will directly inject new customers into the "52nd" new housing market. on the one hand, it will attract new demand to accelerate the digestion of second-hand housing, and promote the more positive release of local demand for improvement through selling old and buying new chains. It plays a positive role in stabilizing the order of magnitude and price of Chengdu new / second-hand housing market.
There are also new moves in first-tier cities, and last week, Shenzhen became the first first-tier city in the country to formally implement "trade-in". What is more noteworthy is that last week, rumors spread in the city that Shenzhen would lift some regional purchase restrictions, and there was no official notice after verification. Prior to this, Shenzhen frequently issued regulation and control policies. On February 7, Shenzhen announced that it would relax the purchase restrictions on registered and non-registered residents. On March 25, Shenzhen announced that it had withdrawn the "90jump 70" policy.
According to a research report released by Guosheng Securities, policies that may land in the future include further loosening of purchase restrictions in core cities, further reduction in loan restrictions such as down payment, further reduction in mortgage interest rates and transaction taxes and fees, and continued efforts in the relevant policies of the "three major projects". In view of the current downward trend of the industry, we do not rule out the statement that the real estate demand side is relatively higher than expected.
Liquidity switchingBscnftgames?
In addition to more policy expectations, the research paper released by China Merchants Securities provides another explanation: focus on the possibility of style switching from the perspective of global or domestic liquidity changes.
A research report released by China Merchants Securities believes that under the joint influence of the concern about the rapid depreciation of the yen eroding earnings and the postponement of interest rate cuts in the United States, some investors may "rebalance" assets to increase the allocation of Hong Kong stocks and A shares, or benefit some undervalued sectors, including some high-quality real estate stocks. Recently, under the concern of the open market of individual real estate enterprises, there is a "miskill" of high-quality housing enterprises or provide them with a potential allocation option of low valuation.
China Merchants Securities further pointed out that the background of this round of increased market attention may be different from that in March.
Real estate stocks experienced a rebound in March, and China Merchants Securities believes that the reason behind it is that the V-shaped changes in fundamentals and credit expectations have brought about a rebound in the prices of stocks and bonds in the real estate sector and the industrial chain. At present, it is the fundamental pressure that drives investment down and thus generates expectations for more policies; at the same time, credit expectations are also different from those at that time, and at present or the market is observing some cities, the progress and evaluation of different types of destocking policies (demand side and supply side) have some observation point premiums.
