The high base leads to negative export growth and will return to positive growth in the second quarter.

Comments on Foreign Trade data in March 2024

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Macro team of Wen Caixin Research Institute

Wu Chaoming and Li Mo

Core viewpoints

First, the high base and the decline in exports to some emerging markets have led to a sharp drop in export growth. The export growth rate increased by 13% last year compared with the previous year.Nextcrashbandicootgame.7 percentage points, which strongly suppresses the growth of exports. At the same time, this month's exports are slightly lower than the historical average for the same period, mainly for three reasons: first, in terms of countries or regions, the two-year average growth rate of exports to Latin America and Africa has dropped more, but the two-year average growth rate of exports to Europe and the United States has been relatively stable; second, in terms of products, the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products has declined, and the former has contributed.NextcrashbandicootgameThe overall export growth rate decreased by nearly 70%. Third, in terms of export volume and prices, the expected quantity factor is the main reason for the sharp decline in exports compared with the same period last year.

Second, a low base, a moderate rebound in demand and price factors together support the narrowing of import declines. The import growth rate dropped much month-on-month in March last year, supporting the rebound in import growth. In terms of import volume and price, both quantity and price factors contributed to the narrowing of the import decline; the import volume growth rate increased month-on-month this month and the variety increased compared with January-February, reflecting a moderate recovery in domestic demand. It is expected that the policy will consolidate and strengthen the domestic recovery trend, and the import growth rate is expected to pick up moderately in the future.

Third, exports are expected to continue to recover weakly in the second quarter, with the export hub at 4-5% in the first half of the year. First, the low base will form a strong support for export growth in the second quarter; second, the moderate recovery of global manufacturing and the opening of the inventory replenishment cycle in the United States will support the volume of domestic export trade; third, the drag of price factors on export growth is expected to be alleviated; fourth, it is expected that the expansion of foreign trade "circle of friends" and the upgrading of export commodity structure will continue to support the export share to remain stable in 2024.

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Events: according to customs statistics, the country's imports and exports totaled US $500.81 billion in March, down 5.1% from the same period last year, an increase of 4.0 percentage points over February. Of this total, exports totaled US $279.68 billion, down 7.5% from the same period last year, down 13.1% from February; imports were US $221.13 billion, down 1.9% from the same period last year, or 6.3% lower than in February; and the trade balance was US $91.83 billion, an increase of US $18.84 billion over February.

First, the high base and the decline in exports to some emerging markets have led to a sharp drop in export growth.

Exports fell 7.5% in March from a year earlier, down 13.1 percentage points from February (see figure 1). From the perspective of base effect, exports in March 2023 increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last year, a sharp rise of 13.7 percentage points from the previous value. In the same period last year, the base rose sharply, which was the main reason for the negative export growth. In terms of month-on-month growth, exports grew 27% month-on-month in March, lower than the average for the same period from 2016 to 2022 (excluding 2020) by 1.5 percentage points (see figure 2). The month-on-month growth rate is lower than seasonal, indicating that in addition to the base effect, there are other factors that drag down export growth. Next, we continue to analyze the reasons for the changes in export growth from three aspects.

First, from a country-by-country point of view, the decline in exports to Latin America and Africa is a major drag on the decline in export growth, and the two-year average growth rate of exports to Europe and the United States has remained stable. Because of the great influence of the base effect in March, we focus on the change of the average growth rate from 2023 to 24 years after excluding the base effect. Exports to the European Union, the United States and Japan fell by an average of 6.2%, 11.9% and 6.3% respectively in March, down 0.1%, 0.1% and 1.8% respectively compared with February. The growth rate of exports to Europe and the United States was relatively stable, while the growth rate of exports to Japan dropped slightly. Among emerging economies, the two-year average growth rate of exports to ASEAN and Russia has rebounded sharply, but the two-year average growth rate of exports to Africa, Latin America and India has dropped more (see figure 3), which is the main drag on the decline in export growth.

Second, from a product-by-product point of view, the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products has slowed down, with the former contributing nearly 70% of the total export growth rate. Exports of mechanical and electrical products fell 8.8% in March from a year earlier, 14.5 percentage points lower than in February, contributing nearly 70% of the decline in export growth in March (see figure 4), higher than the proportion of mechanical and electrical products in total exports, indicating that mechanical and electrical products were the main contributor to the decline in export growth in March. In addition, among the key commodities, the export growth rate of labor-intensive products such as shoes and boots, luggage, ceramics and household appliances all dropped more month-on-month (see figure 5), indicating that the decline in export growth of labor-intensive products this month is also one of the reasons for the sharp decline in export growth.

Third, in terms of volume and price, the expected quantity factor is the main reason for the sharp decline in exports compared with the same period last year. Due to the lag in the publication of export price index and export volume index, we judge the contribution of quantitative factors and price factors to exports by monitoring the relationship between export amount and export volume of key commodities. Among the 17 major export commodities whose quantities and prices were announced at the same time from January to March, 8 varieties showed a month-on-month decline in export volume growth and export price growth, but the decline of the former was significantly higher than that of the latter (see figure 5). Therefore, the expected quantity factor is the main reason for the sharp decline in exports compared with the same period last year, and the price factor is overall or relatively stable.

Second, a low base, a moderate rebound in demand and price factors together support the narrowing of import decline.

Imports fell 1.9% in March from a year earlier, up 6.3 percentage points from February (see figure 6). From the perspective of base effect, imports fell 2.0% in March from the same period last year, 6.3 percentage points lower than the previous value. the low base effect is one of the reasons for the narrowing of import growth, but import growth continues to record negative growth, and import momentum as a whole is still weak.

From the perspective of major commodities, both volume and price factors support the narrowing of import growth. Among the 18 commodities monitored in March, imports of 11 commodities, including edible vegetable oils, integrated circuits, fertilizers, grain, soybeans, steel, logs and sawn timber, natural gas, copper ores and their concentrates, plastics in primary shapes, unwrought copper and copper materials, rebounded year-on-year compared with February. Among them, the growth rate of imports of 9 kinds of commodities rebounded, and the growth rate of import prices of 11 kinds of commodities increased month-on-month, but the increase was even higher. As a result, both quantitative and price factors are expected to support the narrowing of the decline in import growth (see figure 7-9).

进口数量回升品种增加，反映国内需求温和恢复。分产品看，3月份进口数量增速环比提高的品种由1-2月份的6种提高至9种，低基数是支撑因素之一，但也反映出国内需求的温和回升。预计政策靠前发力将巩固和增强国内回升向好态势，未来进口增速有望温和回升。

三、预计二季度出口延续弱恢复，上半年出口中枢在4-5%

一是低基数将对二季度出口增速形成较强支撑。从环比增速看，去年二季度出口环比增速大幅低于2016-22年同期均值（剔除了2020年）（见图2），低基数效应将对今年二季度出口同比读数形成向上支撑。

二是全球制造业温和恢复、美国补库存周期开启，对国内出口贸易量形成支撑。一方面，预计2024年全球服务业和制造业将由分化走向收敛，全球需求结构中商品贡献的比重将有所增加。如3月份摩根大通全球综合PMI、全球制造业PMI、全球服务业PMI分别录得52.3%、50.6%、52.5，分别较2月份回升0.2、0.3 、0.1个百分点，制造业PMI连续三个月位于50%上方，且其边际回升幅度高于服务业PMI（见图10），制造业需求回升将对全球贸易数量形成一定支撑。另一方面，预计受货币累积紧缩效应显现、地缘政治关系紧张、高利率环境加剧金融风险等因素影响，美欧等发达经济体经济下行压力较大，但随着美国补库存周期开启，制造业PMI有望低位回升，商品贸易量也有望迎来小幅改善。分地区看，3月份美国、欧元区制造业PMI指数分别录得51.9%、46.1%，较上月回落0.3和回落0.4个百分点，继续呈现出美强欧弱的格局，且美国PMI仍位于50%临界值上方（见图11）。

三是价格因素对出口增速的拖累作用有望缓解。出口价格增速持续下行是2023年出口负增的主要拖累（见图12），预计2024年上述拖累作用趋于缓解。一方面PPI同比增速领先出口价格增速0-6个月左右，去年7月份起前者降幅已经收窄，预示着出口价格增速也有望重回上行通道（见图13）。另一方面虽然最近几个月PPI收窄速度不及预期，但预计在低基数、国内投资需求释放以及海外地缘政治关系紧张的共同影响下，未来PPI大概率延续降幅收窄趋势，也对出口价格形成支撑。

四是预计外贸“朋友圈”扩容和出口商品结构升级，将继续支撑2024年出口份额保持稳定。其一，当前我国外部环境更趋复杂严峻，西方国家产业链“去中国化”风险上升，这可能会加快全球产业链重构，对我国出口贸易形成拖累，不利于我国出口份额的提升；其二，面对全球地缘政治风险提高局势，产业链供应链的稳定性或日益稀缺，我国全产业链以及成本优势，将对国内出口份额形成一定支撑。其三，近年来我国贸易伙伴不断拓展、贸易结构持续优化，有效提高了我国应对全球供应链和市场波动的能力，或对出口份额也形成一定支撑。

往期回顾　

财信研究评1-2月外贸数据：出口好于预期，进口回升可期

财信研究评3月外贸数据：积压订单释放和数量因素支撑出口增速大幅回升

财信研究评4月外贸数据：对东盟出口回落和外需下降致出口增速放缓

财信研究评5月外贸数据：高基数和外需放缓致出口增速转负

财信研究评6月外贸数据：外需放缓是出口增速降幅扩大主因

财信研究评7月外贸数据：外需、基数和价格共致出口降幅扩大

财信研究评8月外贸数据：低基数、外需拖累减弱支撑出口降幅收窄

财信研究评9月外贸数据：出口环比超预期，四季度中枢或转正

财信研究评10月外贸数据：外需下降和数量因素，共致出口增速降幅扩大

财信研究评12月外贸数据：低基数支撑出口回升，2024年有望弱修复

财信研究评1-2月外贸数据：环比低基数和春节“抢订单”支撑出口增速回升

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