Newsletter summary

This week, the high price of oil fluctuated, and the geographical situation became the focus of the market. Asphalt main contract Bu2406 volatility intensified, supply and demand are both weak, refinery losses are serious, April production is expected to reduce 400000 tons. Due to the rising cost support, the price of asphalt in Shandong area has increased by 70-100 yuan per ton, and the demand in the area has increased. Prices in East China also showed an upward trend, with an increase in the output of the main refineries. This week, the total output of 96 asphalt factories reached 505000 tons, an increase of 48000 tons over the previous month, but shipments decreased slightly. In the later stage, the weak situation of supply and demand is expected to improve, and the asphalt market can be arranged on a bargain basis.

Text of news flash

Oil prices remained high and volatile this week, and the market focused on the geopolitical situation. Bu2406, the main contract of asphalt, also shows high fluctuation. At present, both supply and demand are weak, the refinery has a serious loss, and the willingness to resume production is not strong. It is expected that production will be reduced by 400000 tons in April. As the temperature gradually picks up, the demand for road asphalt is expected to increase, and inventory may decline in mid-late April. As of April 12, 2024, 15Timelooparcade007Bu2406 closed at 3828 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 14 yuan / ton. The base difference in Shandong has increased slightly, while that in East China is still weak.

The price of asphalt in Shandong area continues to rise supported by cost. Qilu and Qingdao raised 30 yuan / ton and 50 yuan / ton respectively, and most georefining prices increased by 70-100 yuan / ton. On the supply side, Qilu produced asphalt from April 3 to 10, while Dongming produced stable production, which led to a slight increase in the operating rate in the area. On the demand side, the weather in the region and surrounding provinces is sunny, and the terminal rigid demand has increased. At the same time, refinery supply is low, part of the social inventory has been consumed, inventory has been slightly reduced.

The price of asphalt in East China also shows an upward trend. Sinopec Zhenhai shipping increased by 70 yuan per ton, Shanghai Petrochemical increased by 50 yuan per ton, and Wenzhou PetroChina increased by 160 yuan per ton. Although Ningbo Keyuan, Xinhai, Alpha and other refineries stopped production, the main refinery Jinling Petrochemical increased production, the overall supply is still adequate. This week, the circulation of resources is dominated by shipping, resulting in the phenomenon of warehouse transfer. On the demand side, as the weather improves, the actual trading atmosphere has improved, but it is still dominated by rigid demand.

Data show that this week, the total output of 96 asphalt factories reached 505000 tons, an increase of 48000 tons compared with the previous month. The total output of georefining was 243000 tons, unchanged from last week; Sinopec 177000 tons, an increase of 37000 tons from the previous month; and PetroChina's total output of 63000 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from the previous week. The shipments of 54 sample enterprises totaled 377000 tons this week, down slightly from the previous month. Shipments in East and South China decreased, and the main volume discount in East China was cancelled at the beginning of the month. At the same time, due to the influence of rainy weather, refinery shipments in the region decreased. The number of shipments in South China decreased during the week, and the weather affected automobile shipments, which decreased slightly. Looking forward to the later stage, the weak situation of supply and demand has improved, and the layout of bargain-hunting can be achieved.

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